Matchup analysis
Our model projects Falcons 20, Chiefs 19 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Falcons win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 38.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game).
Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) meets Falcons' below-average defense (20th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chiefs puts up. Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) should limit Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 16 and Falcons by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Chiefs would be favoured by 1.2. The game is on CBS.
More: Chiefs schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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