Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 23, Raiders 17 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Chiefs win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 40 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game). The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game).
Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) against Raiders' struggling defense (30th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 12 and Chiefs by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chiefs by about 2.8.
More: Raiders schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 18 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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