Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bills 21, Chiefs 20 at Highmark Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Bills win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 41 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game).
Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bills' below-average defense (24th); that mismatch is where most of Chiefs' projected points come from. Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) meets Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bills puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 16 and Bills by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Bills get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Chiefs would be favoured by 1.2. The game is on NBC.
More: Chiefs schedule · Bills schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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