Track record
Projections are locked when a game starts and graded when it ends.
2026 season: 62 games graded, 59.7% winners, Brier score 0.2296, log loss 0.6505.
Calibration
| Predicted | Games | Average prediction | Actual win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 30 | 51.9% | 56.7% |
| 55-60% | 13 | 57.4% | 46.2% |
| 60-65% | 12 | 61.4% | 66.7% |
| 65-70% | 4 | 67.2% | 75.0% |
| 70-100% | 3 | 72.3% | 100.0% |
By month
| Month | Games | Winners | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 45 | 64.4% | 0.2237 |
| 2026-10 | 17 | 47.1% | 0.2451 |
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.