MLB pitcher projections
Marcel-style projections for every starting pitcher, regressed by sample size.
New to these numbers? Read how to read pitcher stats and what FIP, xFIP and xERA mean.
Highest projected strikeout rates (10+ starts)
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB+HBP% | HR% | Innings per start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | 35.5% | 9.1% | 2.60% | 5.0 |
| Tyler Glasnow | LAD | 31.1% | 9.8% | 2.70% | 5.3 |
| Chris Sale | ATL | 31.0% | 7.9% | 2.30% | 5.8 |
| Tarik Skubal | LAD | 31.0% | 6.0% | 2.40% | 5.8 |
| Blake Snell | LAD | 30.9% | 11.8% | 2.10% | 4.6 |
| Dylan Cease | TOR | 30.4% | 10.7% | 2.50% | 5.2 |
| Chase Burns | CIN | 30.0% | 9.1% | 2.90% | 4.5 |
| Cam Schlittler | NYY | 29.7% | 8.1% | 2.50% | 5.3 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | 29.7% | 9.6% | 2.50% | 5.7 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | 29.4% | 7.8% | 2.90% | 5.5 |
| Paul Skenes | PIT | 29.2% | 8.0% | 2.40% | 5.5 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | 29.1% | 6.8% | 3.20% | 4.9 |
| Logan Henderson | MIL | 28.9% | 7.2% | 3.20% | 5.4 |
| Griffin Jax | TB | 28.8% | 7.8% | 2.70% | 4.7 |
| Gavin Williams | CLE | 28.6% | 10.7% | 3.10% | 5.1 |
| Jesús Luzardo | PHI | 28.1% | 8.6% | 2.50% | 6.1 |
| Nick Pivetta | SD | 28.0% | 7.8% | 3.40% | 4.6 |
| Ian Seymour | TB | 27.9% | 7.6% | 3.50% | 5.1 |
| Tatsuya Imai | HOU | 27.8% | 14.4% | 2.90% | 4.2 |
| Reid Detmers | LAA | 27.7% | 8.9% | 3.00% | 5.6 |
| Payton Tolle | BOS | 27.5% | 8.0% | 2.90% | 5.4 |
| Jared Jones | PIT | 27.5% | 8.8% | 3.10% | 5.2 |
| Emmet Sheehan | LAD | 27.4% | 9.2% | 3.40% | 4.9 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | 27.3% | 6.7% | 3.50% | 5.1 |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | 27.1% | 7.1% | 3.50% | 5.1 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | 26.9% | 7.9% | 2.60% | 6.1 |
| Hunter Brown | HOU | 26.7% | 10.3% | 2.80% | 4.7 |
| Nolan McLean | NYM | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.60% | 5.7 |
| Eury Pérez | MIA | 26.3% | 10.7% | 3.10% | 5.4 |
| Cade Cavalli | WSH | 26.1% | 9.1% | 2.80% | 5.5 |
| Jack Flaherty | DET | 26.1% | 10.3% | 3.20% | 4.9 |
| Christian Scott | NYM | 26.0% | 10.7% | 3.00% | 5.1 |
| Braydon Fisher | TOR | 26.0% | 11.9% | 2.90% | 2.5 |
| Freddy Peralta | TB | 25.8% | 10.2% | 3.30% | 5.3 |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | 25.8% | 11.6% | 2.90% | 4.3 |
| Carlos Rodón | NYY | 25.7% | 10.6% | 3.30% | 5.5 |
| Parker Messick | CLE | 25.5% | 7.2% | 2.70% | 4.8 |
| Lake Bachar | PIT | 25.5% | 10.7% | 3.30% | 3.0 |
| Taj Bradley | MIN | 25.4% | 10.1% | 3.30% | 5.7 |
| Joey Cantillo | CLE | 25.4% | 11.9% | 2.80% | 4.6 |
Rates are per batter faced, projected from the current and three previous seasons and regressed toward league average by sample size.
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.