2026 MLB playoff predictions
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Most likely champion: Los Angeles Dodgers at 50.9%.
- AL Wild Card Series: Houston Astros (3) 0% vs Chicago White Sox (6) 100%
- AL Wild Card Series: New York Yankees (4) 100% vs Boston Red Sox (5) 0%
- NL Wild Card Series: Atlanta Braves (3) 100% vs Philadelphia Phillies (6) 0%
- NL Wild Card Series: San Diego Padres (4) 100% vs Chicago Cubs (5) 0%
- AL Division Series: Tampa Bay Rays (1) 100% vs New York Yankees (4) 0%
- AL Division Series: Cleveland Guardians (2) 100% vs Chicago White Sox (6) 0%
- NL Division Series: Milwaukee Brewers (1) 100% vs San Diego Padres (4) 0%
- NL Division Series: Los Angeles Dodgers (2) 100% vs Atlanta Braves (3) 0%
- AL Championship Series: Tampa Bay Rays (1) 53% vs Cleveland Guardians (2) 47%
- NL Championship Series: Milwaukee Brewers (1) 33% vs Los Angeles Dodgers (2) 67%
- World Series: LAD 67%, TB 53%, CLE 47%, MIL 33%
| Team | Seed | Record | Reach LCS | Pennant | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 100-62 | 100% | 67% | 50.9% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | 103-59 | 100% | 33% | 19.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | 98-64 | 100% | 53% | 16.4% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 85-77 | 100% | 47% | 13.7% |
| Boston Red Sox | 5 | 87-75 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 5 | 89-73 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Astros | 3 | 81-81 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego Padres | 4 | 91-71 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 88-74 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| Atlanta Braves | 3 | 94-68 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 6 | 84-78 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| New York Yankees | 4 | 93-68 | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
Stats-only round guides (schedule, TV, head-to-head records and relievers): ALDS & NLDS · ALCS & NLCS · World Series schedule.
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