New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: AL Wild Card Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
New York Yankees (4 seed, 93-68) vs Boston Red Sox (5 seed, 87-75), best of 3. New York Yankees 100% to win the series; expected length 2 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | NYY win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | NYY | Cam Schlittler vs Ranger Suarez | 57% |
| Game 2 | NYY | Max Fried vs Sonny Gray | 52% |
| Game 3 | NYY | Gerrit Cole vs Payton Tolle | 53% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | NYY wins | BOS wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 games | 29.8% | 20.6% | 50.3% |
| 3 games | 26.5% | 23.2% | 49.7% |
The chance this series needs all 3 games is 49.7%; a 2-0 sweep by either side is 50.3%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler (RHP) | NYY | 204.1 | 251 | 31.1% | 2.47 |
| Ranger Suarez (LHP) | BOS | 148.1 | 140 | 22.9% | 3.4 |
| Max Fried (LHP) | NYY | 124.1 | 117 | 24.5% | 2.9 |
| Sonny Gray (RHP) | BOS | 173.2 | 154 | 21.9% | 2.8 |
| Gerrit Cole (RHP) | NYY | 132.0 | 136 | 25.2% | 3.61 |
| Payton Tolle (LHP) | BOS | 153.1 | 175 | 28.1% | 3.23 |
New York Yankees · Boston Red Sox · Bracket
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