Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees projection, 2026-09-29

The model gives the New York Yankees a 55% chance of beating the Boston Red Sox in the AL Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium, with a projected score of BOS 3.6, NYY 3.8 and about 7.4 total runs. There is a 34% chance the game is decided by one run.

Payton Tolle (LHP, BOS) projects to strike out 27.6% and put on 8.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .333 xwOBA against him. Cam Schlittler (RHP, NYY) projects to strike out 29.8% and put on 8.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .314 xwOBA against him.

BOS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (68 weighted pitches over the last three days). NYY's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).

Yankee Stadium plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 67°F with 8 mph wind; Nate Tomlinson has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for BOS the biggest factor is opposing starter (-12% to their expected runs) and for NYY the biggest factor is opposing starter (-9% to their expected runs).

Boston Red Sox · New York Yankees · Payton Tolle · Cam Schlittler

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