Boston Red Sox: projections & ratings
American League East · Home park: Fenway Park (run environment +4.6%)
Ratings
Boston Red Sox: 4.21 runs scored and 3.84 allowed per game over 164 games. Offense rating +0.02 runs per game versus league (regressed); run prevention -0.43 (negative is better).
- vs left-handed pitching: +4 pts wOBA against its own average
- vs right-handed pitching: -2 pts
- Defense (Outs Above Average, last season): +9
- Bullpen rested: 100% (0 weighted pitches over three days)
Schedule: recent results
- Wednesday, September 30, 2026: BOS @ NYY — BOS 2 – 9 NYY · Final (AL Wild Card Series, game 2). Sonny Gray vs Max Fried; projected BOS 4.0–4.0 NYY, 7.9 runs, NYY 53% to win.
- Tuesday, September 29, 2026: BOS @ NYY — BOS 0 – 9 NYY · Final (AL Wild Card Series, game 1). Payton Tolle vs Cam Schlittler; projected BOS 3.6–3.8 NYY, 7.4 runs, NYY 55% to win.
- Sunday, September 27, 2026: CHC @ BOS — CHC 6 – 2 BOS · Final. Shota Imanaga vs Tanner Houck; projected CHC 4.7–4.1 BOS, 8.8 runs, CHC 53% to win.
- Friday, September 25, 2026: CHC @ BOS — CHC 0 – 2 BOS · Final. David Peterson vs Brayan Bello; projected CHC 4.5–4.3 BOS, 8.7 runs, BOS 51% to win.
- Friday, September 25, 2026: CHC @ BOS — CHC 3 – 4 BOS · Final. Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa; projected CHC 4.8–4.3 BOS, 9.1 runs, CHC 53% to win.
- Thursday, September 24, 2026: CLE @ BOS — CLE 1 – 0 BOS · Final. Daniel Espino vs Ranger Suarez; projected CLE 3.6–3.9 BOS, 7.5 runs, BOS 57% to win.
Most recent lineup
- Jahmai Jones (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.323
- Adley Rutschman (bats S) — projected wOBA 0.316
- Willson Contreras (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.358
- Wilyer Abreu (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.329
- Ceddanne Rafaela (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.307
- Caleb Durbin (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.314
- Nick Sogard (bats S) — projected wOBA 0.313
- Trevor Story (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.302
- Nate Eaton (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.297
Bullpen workload
- Aroldis Chapman: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +11.4 pts
- Garrett Crochet: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +11.1 pts
- Garrett Whitlock: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +7.0 pts
- Tyron Guerrero: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +4.3 pts
- Jake Bennett: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.9 pts
- Jovani Morán: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.5 pts
- Erik Miller: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.3 pts
- Raymond Burgos: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.3 pts
- Greg Weissert: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.1 pts
- Wyatt Olds: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +0.5 pts
- Patrick Sandoval: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -2.0 pts
- Brayan Bello: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -3.2 pts
Rotation projections
| Pitcher | GS | Proj. K% | Proj. BB% | Exp. IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 30 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 5.6 |
| Ranger Suarez | 28 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 5.3 |
| Payton Tolle | 27 | 27.5% | 8.0% | 5.4 |
| Jake Bennett | 19 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 5.4 |
| Patrick Sandoval | 13 | 21.4% | 10.9% | 5.1 |
| Brayan Bello | 11 | 19.0% | 9.7% | 5.0 |
| Garrett Crochet | 6 | 31.2% | 7.7% | 5.3 |
| Alec Gamboa | 3 | 18.3% | 9.5% | 3.4 |
2026 postseason: AL Wild Card Series preview vs New York Yankees.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not advice of any kind and nothing here guarantees any result. How the numbers are made: Methodology · how they have done: Track record.
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