Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox projection, 2026-09-24
The model gives the Boston Red Sox a 57% chance of beating the Cleveland Guardians at Fenway Park, with a projected score of CLE 3.6, BOS 3.9 and about 7.5 total runs. There is a 34% chance the game is decided by one run.
Daniel Espino (RHP, CLE) projects to strike out 29.9% and put on 10.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 3.7 innings. Ranger Suarez (LHP, BOS) projects to strike out 22.8% and put on 8.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .277 xwOBA against him.
CLE's bullpen has 83% of its usual relief work rested (76 weighted pitches over the last three days); Tim Herrin is likely unavailable. BOS's bullpen has 86% of its usual relief work rested (88 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Fenway Park plays 5% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 58°F with 6 mph wind; Quinn Wolcott has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CLE the biggest factor is weather (-8% to their expected runs) and for BOS the biggest factor is weather (-8% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CLE 43% · BOS 57% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CLE 3.6 – 3.9 BOS |
| Projected total runs | 7.5 |
| One-run game | 34% |
| CLE starter | Daniel Espino (RHP): projected 29.9% strikeouts, 10.3% walks + HBP, 3.7 innings |
| BOS starter | Ranger Suarez (LHP): projected 22.8% strikeouts, 8.3% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| Ballpark | Fenway Park (run factor +5%) |
Cleveland Guardians · Boston Red Sox · Daniel Espino · Ranger Suarez
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