Cleveland Guardians: projections & ratings
American League Central · Home park: Progressive Field (run environment -6.1%)
Ratings
Cleveland Guardians: 4.2 runs scored and 4.08 allowed per game over 167 games. Offense rating -0.33 runs per game versus league (regressed); run prevention -0.37 (negative is better).
- vs left-handed pitching: +8 pts wOBA against its own average
- vs right-handed pitching: -4 pts
- Defense (Outs Above Average, last season): -1
- Bullpen rested: 66% (88 weighted pitches over three days)
Schedule: next games
- Monday, October 12, 2026: CLE @ TB — 8:00 PM ET (AL Championship Series, game 1). TBD vs TBD; projected CLE 3.4–3.7 TB, 7.2 runs, TB 56% to win.
Schedule: recent results
- Saturday, October 10, 2026: CWS @ CLE — CWS 0 – 2 CLE · Final (AL Division Series, game 5). Sean Burke vs Gavin Williams; projected CWS 3.4–3.9 CLE, 7.3 runs, CLE 58% to win.
- Thursday, October 8, 2026: CLE @ CWS — CLE 9 – 5 CWS · Final (AL Division Series, game 4). Parker Messick vs Hagen Smith; projected CLE 3.9–3.6 CWS, 7.5 runs, CLE 51% to win.
- Wednesday, October 7, 2026: CLE @ CWS — CLE 9 – 3 CWS · Final (AL Division Series, game 3). Daniel Espino vs Sean Newcomb; projected CLE 4.3–4.1 CWS, 8.3 runs, CWS 51% to win.
- Monday, October 5, 2026: CWS @ CLE — CWS 4 – 3 CLE · Final (AL Division Series, game 2). Anthony Kay vs Gavin Williams; projected CWS 3.3–3.9 CLE, 7.1 runs, CLE 61% to win.
- Saturday, October 3, 2026: CWS @ CLE — CWS 3 – 0 CLE · Final (AL Division Series, game 1). Hagen Smith vs Parker Messick; projected CWS 3.4–3.7 CLE, 7.0 runs, CLE 56% to win.
Most recent lineup
- Steven Kwan (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.322
- José Ramírez (bats S) — projected wOBA 0.337
- Chase DeLauter (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.338
- Jo Adell (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.312
- Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.32
- Travis Bazzana (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.318
- Patrick Bailey (bats S) — projected wOBA 0.281
- Petey Halpin (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.296
- Brayan Rocchio (bats S) — projected wOBA 0.297
Bullpen workload
- Cade Smith: 27 / 0 / 31 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +14.2 pts
- Erik Sabrowski: 5 / 0 / 17 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +7.6 pts
- Daniel Espino: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +7.5 pts
- Gavin Williams: 0 / 0 / 18 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +5.5 pts
- Austin Peterson: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +2.8 pts
- Foster Griffin: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +2.1 pts
- Matt Festa: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.9 pts
- Hunter Gaddis: 24 / 0 / 16 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.7 pts
- Shawn Armstrong: 0 / 0 / 19 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.6 pts
- Joey Cantillo: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.0 pts
- Tanner Bibee: 0 / 0 / 15 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +0.8 pts
- Slade Cecconi: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -0.6 pts
Rotation projections
| Pitcher | GS | Proj. K% | Proj. BB% | Exp. IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | 34 | 28.6% | 10.7% | 5.1 |
| Parker Messick | 34 | 25.5% | 7.2% | 4.8 |
| Tanner Bibee | 33 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 5.4 |
| Foster Griffin | 31 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 5.0 |
| Joey Cantillo | 30 | 25.4% | 11.9% | 4.6 |
| Slade Cecconi | 21 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 4.9 |
| Daniel Espino | 4 | 30.6% | 10.6% | 3.0 |
| Logan Allen | 2 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 4.6 |
2026 postseason: AL Division Series preview vs Chicago White Sox · AL Championship Series preview vs Tampa Bay Rays · ALCS schedule, head-to-head and bullpens.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not advice of any kind and nothing here guarantees any result. How the numbers are made: Methodology · how they have done: Track record.
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