Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians projection, 2026-10-10
The model gives the Cleveland Guardians a 58% chance of beating the Chicago White Sox in the AL Division Series at Progressive Field, with a projected score of CWS 3.4, CLE 3.9 and about 7.3 total runs. There is a 34% chance the game is decided by one run.
Sean Burke (RHP, CWS) projects to strike out 24.9% and put on 10.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .341 xwOBA against him. Gavin Williams (RHP, CLE) projects to strike out 28.3% and put on 10.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .321 xwOBA against him.
CWS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (112 weighted pitches over the last three days). CLE's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (88 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Progressive Field plays 6% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 65°F with 11 mph wind; Vic Carapazza has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CWS the biggest factor is opposing starter (-8% to their expected runs) and for CLE the biggest factor is ballpark (-4% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CWS 42% · CLE 58% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CWS 3.4 – 3.9 CLE |
| Projected total runs | 7.3 |
| One-run game | 34% |
| CWS starter | Sean Burke (RHP): projected 24.9% strikeouts, 10.4% walks + HBP, 4.8 innings |
| CLE starter | Gavin Williams (RHP): projected 28.3% strikeouts, 10.6% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Progressive Field (run factor -6%) |
Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians · Sean Burke · Gavin Williams
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