Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox projection, 2026-10-07
The model gives the Chicago White Sox a 51% chance of beating the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Division Series at Rate Field, with a projected score of CLE 4.3, CWS 4.1 and about 8.3 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Daniel Espino (RHP, CLE) projects to strike out 30.2% and put on 10.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 3.3 innings. Sean Newcomb (LHP, CWS) projects to strike out 22.7% and put on 10.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 3.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .306 xwOBA against him.
CLE's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (24 weighted pitches over the last three days). CWS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (45 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Rate Field plays 2% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 75°F with 6 mph wind; Todd Tichenor has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CLE the biggest factor is opposing starter (+6% to their expected runs) and for CWS the biggest factor is opposing bullpen (-4% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CLE 49% · CWS 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CLE 4.3 – 4.1 CWS |
| Projected total runs | 8.3 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| CLE starter | Daniel Espino (RHP): projected 30.2% strikeouts, 10.4% walks + HBP, 3.3 innings |
| CWS starter | Sean Newcomb (LHP): projected 22.7% strikeouts, 10.3% walks + HBP, 3.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Rate Field (run factor -1.6%) |
Cleveland Guardians · Chicago White Sox · Daniel Espino · Sean Newcomb
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