Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox: AL Division Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Cleveland Guardians (2 seed, 85-77) vs Chicago White Sox (6 seed, 84-78), best of 5. Cleveland Guardians 100% to win the series; expected length 5 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | CLE win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | CLE | Parker Messick vs Hagen Smith | 59% |
| Game 2 | CLE | Gavin Williams vs Sean Burke | 59% |
| Game 3 | CWS | Foster Griffin vs Davis Martin | 53% |
| Game 4 | CWS | Tanner Bibee vs Anthony Kay | 54% |
| Game 5 | CLE | Parker Messick vs Hagen Smith | 59% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | CLE wins | CWS wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 games | 18.2% | 8.0% | 26.2% |
| 4 games | 22.7% | 14.6% | 37.3% |
| 5 games | 21.5% | 15.0% | 36.5% |
The chance this series needs all 5 games is 36.5%; a 3-0 sweep by either side is 26.2%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick (LHP) | CLE | 193.0 | 204 | 26.2% | 2.84 |
| Hagen Smith (LHP) | CWS | 35.0 | 47 | 33.1% | 1.54 |
| Gavin Williams (RHP) | CLE | 196.0 | 272 | 34.3% | 3.81 |
| Sean Burke (RHP) | CWS | 186.2 | 203 | 26.4% | 3.52 |
| Foster Griffin (LHP) | CLE | 175.1 | 165 | 22.5% | 3.95 |
| Davis Martin (RHP) | CWS | 147.0 | 123 | 19.7% | 4.29 |
| Tanner Bibee (RHP) | CLE | 188.1 | 149 | 19.0% | 4.64 |
| Anthony Kay (LHP) | CWS | 160.2 | 129 | 17.8% | 4.99 |
Cleveland Guardians · Chicago White Sox · Bracket
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