Postseason backtest
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess.
| Model | 186 | 54.8% | 0.2537 | 0.7009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closing market | 186 | 53.8% | 0.2486 | 0.6902 |
Pre-series probabilities, 52 series: model Brier 0.2624, regular-season records 0.2539, coin flip 0.25.
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