Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox projection, 2026-10-08
The model gives the Cleveland Guardians a 51% chance of beating the Chicago White Sox in the AL Division Series at Rate Field, with a projected score of CLE 3.9, CWS 3.6 and about 7.5 total runs. There is a 34% chance the game is decided by one run.
Parker Messick (LHP, CLE) projects to strike out 25.4% and put on 6.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .274 xwOBA against him. Hagen Smith (LHP, CWS) projects to strike out 30.8% and put on 12.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 3.9 innings.
CLE's bullpen has 55% of its usual relief work rested (144 weighted pitches over the last three days); Foster Griffin, Joey Cantillo are likely unavailable. CWS's bullpen has 80% of its usual relief work rested (168 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Rate Field plays 2% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 65°F with 3 mph wind; Jansen Visconti has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CLE the biggest factor is weather (-4% to their expected runs) and for CWS the biggest factor is opposing starter (-5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CLE 51% · CWS 49% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CLE 3.9 – 3.6 CWS |
| Projected total runs | 7.5 |
| One-run game | 34% |
| CLE starter | Parker Messick (LHP): projected 25.4% strikeouts, 6.9% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| CWS starter | Hagen Smith (LHP): projected 30.8% strikeouts, 12.5% walks + HBP, 3.9 innings |
| Ballpark | Rate Field (run factor -1.5%) |
Cleveland Guardians · Chicago White Sox · Parker Messick · Hagen Smith
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.