Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians projection, 2026-10-03
The model gives the Cleveland Guardians a 56% chance of beating the Chicago White Sox in the AL Division Series at Progressive Field, with a projected score of CWS 3.4, CLE 3.7 and about 7.0 total runs. There is a 35% chance the game is decided by one run.
Hagen Smith (LHP, CWS) projects to strike out 30.7% and put on 11.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.1 innings. Parker Messick (LHP, CLE) projects to strike out 25.2% and put on 6.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .274 xwOBA against him.
CWS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (20 weighted pitches over the last three days). CLE's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Progressive Field plays 6% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 63°F with 9 mph wind; Cory Blaser has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CWS the biggest factor is opposing starter (-6% to their expected runs) and for CLE the biggest factor is weather (-4% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CWS 44% · CLE 56% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CWS 3.4 – 3.7 CLE |
| Projected total runs | 7.0 |
| One-run game | 35% |
| CWS starter | Hagen Smith (LHP): projected 30.7% strikeouts, 11.3% walks + HBP, 4.1 innings |
| CLE starter | Parker Messick (LHP): projected 25.2% strikeouts, 6.8% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| Ballpark | Progressive Field (run factor -5.8%) |
Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians · Hagen Smith · Parker Messick
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.