Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians projection, 2026-10-05
The model gives the Cleveland Guardians a 61% chance of beating the Chicago White Sox in the AL Division Series at Progressive Field, with a projected score of CWS 3.2, CLE 3.9 and about 7.1 total runs. There is a 35% chance the game is decided by one run.
Anthony Kay (LHP, CWS) projects to strike out 18.2% and put on 11.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings. Gavin Williams (RHP, CLE) projects to strike out 28.0% and put on 10.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .321 xwOBA against him.
CWS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (32 weighted pitches over the last three days). CLE's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (31 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Progressive Field plays 6% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 61°F with 13 mph wind; Gabe Morales has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CWS the biggest factor is opposing starter (-8% to their expected runs) and for CLE the biggest factor is weather (-8% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CWS 39% · CLE 61% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CWS 3.3 – 3.9 CLE |
| Projected total runs | 7.1 |
| One-run game | 35% |
| CWS starter | Anthony Kay (LHP): projected 18.2% strikeouts, 11.4% walks + HBP, 4.8 innings |
| CLE starter | Gavin Williams (RHP): projected 28.0% strikeouts, 10.6% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Progressive Field (run factor -5.9%) |
Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians · Anthony Kay · Gavin Williams
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.