Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees projection, 2026-09-30

The model gives the New York Yankees a 53% chance of beating the Boston Red Sox in the AL Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium, with a projected score of BOS 4.0, NYY 4.0 and about 7.9 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.

Sonny Gray (RHP, BOS) projects to strike out 25.1% and put on 7.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .306 xwOBA against him. Max Fried (LHP, NYY) projects to strike out 23.3% and put on 8.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .287 xwOBA against him.

BOS's bullpen has 78% of its usual relief work rested (112 weighted pitches over the last three days). NYY's bullpen has 90% of its usual relief work rested (29 weighted pitches over the last three days).

Yankee Stadium plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 68°F with 5 mph wind; Scott Barry has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for BOS the biggest factor is opposing starter (-5% to their expected runs) and for NYY the biggest factor is opposing starter (-9% to their expected runs).

Boston Red Sox · New York Yankees · Sonny Gray · Max Fried

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