Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Chicago Cubs a 53% chance of beating the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, with a projected score of CHC 4.8, BOS 4.3 and about 9.1 total runs. There is a 29% chance the game is decided by one run.
Clay Holmes (RHP, CHC) projects to strike out 20.2% and put on 10.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .322 xwOBA against him. Alec Gamboa (LHP, BOS) projects to strike out 19.4% and put on 9.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 3.6 innings.
CHC's bullpen has 88% of its usual relief work rested (86 weighted pitches over the last three days). BOS's bullpen has 80% of its usual relief work rested (84 weighted pitches over the last three days); Raymond Burgos is likely unavailable.
Fenway Park plays 5% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 65°F with 14 mph wind; Doug Eddings has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CHC the biggest factor is opposing starter (+10% to their expected runs) and for BOS the biggest factor is weather (-5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CHC 53% · BOS 47% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CHC 4.8 – 4.3 BOS |
| Projected total runs | 9.1 |
| One-run game | 29% |
| CHC starter | Clay Holmes (RHP): projected 20.2% strikeouts, 10.7% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| BOS starter | Alec Gamboa (LHP): projected 19.4% strikeouts, 9.4% walks + HBP, 3.6 innings |
| Ballpark | Fenway Park (run factor +4.8%) |
Chicago Cubs · Boston Red Sox · Clay Holmes · Alec Gamboa
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