Chicago Cubs: projections & ratings
National League Central · Home park: Wrigley Field (run environment -0.1%)
Ratings
Chicago Cubs: 5.19 runs scored and 4.36 allowed per game over 164 games. Offense rating +0.50 runs per game versus league (regressed); run prevention -0.24 (negative is better).
- vs left-handed pitching: +5 pts wOBA against its own average
- vs right-handed pitching: -2 pts
- Defense (Outs Above Average, last season): +36
- Bullpen rested: 100% (0 weighted pitches over three days)
Schedule: recent results
- Wednesday, September 30, 2026: CHC @ SD — CHC 1 – 4 SD · Final (NL Wild Card Series, game 2). Kevin Gausman vs Nick Pivetta; projected CHC 3.9–3.8 SD, 7.7 runs, SD 51% to win.
- Tuesday, September 29, 2026: CHC @ SD — CHC 0 – 8 SD · Final (NL Wild Card Series, game 1). Matthew Boyd vs Michael King; projected CHC 4.1–4.0 SD, 8.1 runs, SD 52% to win.
- Sunday, September 27, 2026: CHC @ BOS — CHC 6 – 2 BOS · Final. Shota Imanaga vs Tanner Houck; projected CHC 4.7–4.1 BOS, 8.8 runs, CHC 53% to win.
- Friday, September 25, 2026: CHC @ BOS — CHC 0 – 2 BOS · Final. David Peterson vs Brayan Bello; projected CHC 4.5–4.3 BOS, 8.7 runs, BOS 51% to win.
- Friday, September 25, 2026: CHC @ BOS — CHC 3 – 4 BOS · Final. Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa; projected CHC 4.8–4.3 BOS, 9.1 runs, CHC 53% to win.
- Thursday, September 24, 2026: MIA @ CHC — MIA 1 – 2 CHC · Final. Tyler Phillips vs Matthew Boyd; projected MIA 3.8–5.1 CHC, 8.9 runs, CHC 66% to win.
Most recent lineup
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.342
- Alex Bregman (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.343
- Michael Busch (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.338
- Seiya Suzuki (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.351
- Ian Happ (bats S) — projected wOBA 0.328
- Nico Hoerner (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.312
- Matt Shaw (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.307
- Carson Kelly (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.312
- Dansby Swanson (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.307
Bullpen workload
- Caleb Thielbar: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +5.5 pts
- Ryan Zeferjahn: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +3.2 pts
- Daniel Palencia: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +2.2 pts
- Jacob Webb: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.3 pts
- Braxton Garrett: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +0.9 pts
- Edward Cabrera: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -0.3 pts
- Aaron Civale: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -0.7 pts
- David Peterson: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -2.2 pts
- Colin Rea: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -2.5 pts
- Ryan Rolison: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -3.8 pts
- Javier Assad: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -4.0 pts
- Gavin Hollowell: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -4.3 pts
Rotation projections
| Pitcher | GS | Proj. K% | Proj. BB% | Exp. IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | 33 | 24.4% | 7.4% | 5.1 |
| Shota Imanaga | 32 | 23.4% | 6.0% | 4.7 |
| David Peterson | 23 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 5.2 |
| Matthew Boyd | 23 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 5.5 |
| Colin Rea | 19 | 18.5% | 8.5% | 5.4 |
| Clay Holmes | 18 | 20.2% | 10.8% | 5.2 |
| Aaron Civale | 15 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 4.7 |
| Edward Cabrera | 15 | 24.2% | 12.0% | 4.7 |
2026 postseason: NL Wild Card Series preview vs San Diego Padres.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not advice of any kind and nothing here guarantees any result. How the numbers are made: Methodology · how they have done: Track record.
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