Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-09-30
The model gives the San Diego Padres a 51% chance of beating the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series at Petco Park, with a projected score of CHC 3.9, SD 3.8 and about 7.7 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Kevin Gausman (RHP, CHC) projects to strike out 24.5% and put on 7.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .301 xwOBA against him. Nick Pivetta (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 28.1% and put on 7.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .309 xwOBA against him.
CHC's bullpen has 75% of its usual relief work rested (99 weighted pitches over the last three days). SD's bullpen has 92% of its usual relief work rested (49 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Petco Park plays 7% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 71°F with 6 mph wind; Erich Bacchus has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CHC the biggest factor is lineup quality (+8% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is opposing starter (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CHC 49% · SD 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CHC 3.9 – 3.8 SD |
| Projected total runs | 7.7 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| CHC starter | Kevin Gausman (RHP): projected 24.5% strikeouts, 7.4% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| SD starter | Nick Pivetta (RHP): projected 28.1% strikeouts, 7.8% walks + HBP, 4.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.4%) |
Chicago Cubs · San Diego Padres · Kevin Gausman · Nick Pivetta
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