San Diego Padres: projections & ratings
National League West · Home park: Petco Park (run environment -7.6%)
Ratings
San Diego Padres: 4.43 runs scored and 4.14 allowed per game over 168 games. Offense rating -0.08 runs per game versus league (regressed); run prevention -0.42 (negative is better).
- vs left-handed pitching: -2 pts wOBA against its own average
- vs right-handed pitching: +1 pts
- Defense (Outs Above Average, last season): -7
- Bullpen rested: 100% (0 weighted pitches over three days)
Schedule: recent results
- Wednesday, October 7, 2026: MIL @ SD — MIL 3 – 1 SD · Final (NL Division Series, game 4). Robert Gasser vs Walker Buehler; projected MIL 4.2–4.1 SD, 8.3 runs, SD 51% to win.
- Tuesday, October 6, 2026: MIL @ SD — MIL 3 – 4 SD · Final (NL Division Series, game 3). Dustin May vs Nick Pivetta; projected MIL 3.9–4.2 SD, 8.1 runs, SD 56% to win.
- Sunday, October 4, 2026: SD @ MIL — SD 3 – 4 MIL · Final (NL Division Series, game 2). Michael King vs Logan Henderson; projected SD 3.6–4.0 MIL, 7.7 runs, MIL 58% to win.
- Saturday, October 3, 2026: SD @ MIL — SD 2 – 3 MIL · Final (NL Division Series, game 1). Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski; projected SD 3.4–4.2 MIL, 7.5 runs, MIL 62% to win.
- Wednesday, September 30, 2026: CHC @ SD — CHC 1 – 4 SD · Final (NL Wild Card Series, game 2). Kevin Gausman vs Nick Pivetta; projected CHC 3.9–3.8 SD, 7.7 runs, SD 51% to win.
Most recent lineup
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.346
- Jackson Merrill (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.328
- Manny Machado (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.326
- Ty France (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.323
- Austin Hays (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.314
- Xander Bogaerts (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.312
- Luis Campusano (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.317
- Jake Cronenworth (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.306
- Samad Taylor (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.317
Bullpen workload
- Mason Miller: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +18.6 pts
- Adrian Morejon: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +6.6 pts
- Bradgley Rodriguez: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +5.9 pts
- Joe Musgrove: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +3.1 pts
- Michael King: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.9 pts
- Jason Adam: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.9 pts
- Yuki Matsui: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +0.3 pts
- David Morgan: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league 0.0 pts
- Kyle Hart: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -0.9 pts
- Griffin Canning: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -1.8 pts
- Robbie Ray: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -1.8 pts
- Wandy Peralta: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -4.4 pts
Rotation projections
| Pitcher | GS | Proj. K% | Proj. BB% | Exp. IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | 34 | 24.5% | 10.1% | 5.6 |
| Walker Buehler | 33 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 4.7 |
| Robbie Ray | 31 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 4.6 |
| Casey Mize | 26 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 4.6 |
| Randy Vásquez | 23 | 14.8% | 8.9% | 5.0 |
| Griffin Canning | 11 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 4.7 |
| Germán Márquez | 10 | 15.3% | 9.8% | 4.5 |
| Nick Pivetta | 10 | 28.0% | 7.8% | 4.6 |
2026 postseason: NL Wild Card Series preview vs Chicago Cubs · NL Division Series preview vs Milwaukee Brewers · NLDS schedule, head-to-head and bullpens.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not advice of any kind and nothing here guarantees any result. How the numbers are made: Methodology · how they have done: Track record.
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