San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers projection, 2026-10-03
The model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 62% chance of beating the San Diego Padres in the NL Division Series at American Family Field, with a projected score of SD 3.4, MIL 4.2 and about 7.5 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Robbie Ray (LHP, SD) projects to strike out 22.6% and put on 11.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .300 xwOBA against him. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, MIL) projects to strike out 35.5% and put on 9.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .288 xwOBA against him.
SD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (20 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).
American Family Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Nick Mahrley has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for SD the biggest factor is opposing starter (-16% to their expected runs) and for MIL the biggest factor is opposing bullpen (-2% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | SD 38% · MIL 62% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | SD 3.4 – 4.2 MIL |
| Projected total runs | 7.5 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| SD starter | Robbie Ray (LHP): projected 22.6% strikeouts, 11.7% walks + HBP, 4.8 innings |
| MIL starter | Jacob Misiorowski (RHP): projected 35.5% strikeouts, 9.2% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | American Family Field (run factor -2.7%) |
San Diego Padres · Milwaukee Brewers · Robbie Ray · Jacob Misiorowski
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