Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-10-07
The model gives the San Diego Padres a 51% chance of beating the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Division Series at Petco Park, with a projected score of MIL 4.2, SD 4.1 and about 8.3 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Robert Gasser (LHP, MIL) projects to strike out 20.8% and put on 9.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .342 xwOBA against him. Walker Buehler (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 18.7% and put on 10.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .355 xwOBA against him.
MIL's bullpen has 59% of its usual relief work rested (96 weighted pitches over the last three days); JoJo Romero, DL Hall are likely unavailable. SD's bullpen has 65% of its usual relief work rested (117 weighted pitches over the last three days); Michael King is likely unavailable.
Petco Park plays 8% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 81°F with 6 mph wind; Nic Lentz has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for MIL the biggest factor is ballpark (-5% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is ballpark (-5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | MIL 49% · SD 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | MIL 4.2 – 4.1 SD |
| Projected total runs | 8.3 |
| One-run game | 32% |
| MIL starter | Robert Gasser (LHP): projected 20.8% strikeouts, 9.5% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| SD starter | Walker Buehler (RHP): projected 18.7% strikeouts, 10.7% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.5%) |
Milwaukee Brewers · San Diego Padres · Robert Gasser · Walker Buehler
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