Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres: NL Division Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Milwaukee Brewers (1 seed, 103-59) vs San Diego Padres (4 seed, 91-71), best of 5. Milwaukee Brewers 100% to win the series; expected length 4 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | MIL win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | MIL | Jacob Misiorowski vs Michael King | 59% |
| Game 2 | MIL | Logan Henderson vs Nick Pivetta | 56% |
| Game 3 | SD | Robert Gasser vs Robbie Ray | 47% |
| Game 4 | SD | Dustin May vs Walker Buehler | 48% |
| Game 5 | MIL | Jacob Misiorowski vs Michael King | 59% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | MIL wins | SD wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 games | 15.5% | 9.5% | 25.0% |
| 4 games | 19.6% | 17.7% | 37.4% |
| 5 games | 22.3% | 15.3% | 37.6% |
The chance this series needs all 5 games is 37.6%; a 3-0 sweep by either side is 25.0%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | MIL | 178.2 | 258 | 37.8% | 2.27 |
| Michael King (RHP) | SD | 199.0 | 174 | 21.5% | 3.12 |
| Logan Henderson (RHP) | MIL | 103.1 | 114 | 29.0% | 2.61 |
| Nick Pivetta (RHP) | SD | 42.1 | 50 | 28.9% | 2.98 |
| Robert Gasser (LHP) | MIL | 113.1 | 106 | 22.1% | 3.97 |
| Robbie Ray (LHP) | SD | 169.1 | 141 | 19.6% | 4.09 |
| Dustin May (RHP) | MIL | 148.2 | 147 | 23.1% | 4.9 |
| Walker Buehler (RHP) | SD | 156.2 | 131 | 19.8% | 4.71 |
Milwaukee Brewers · San Diego Padres · Bracket
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