Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-10-06
The model gives the San Diego Padres a 56% chance of beating the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Division Series at Petco Park, with a projected score of MIL 3.9, SD 4.2 and about 8.1 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Dustin May (RHP, MIL) projects to strike out 21.9% and put on 10.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .349 xwOBA against him. Nick Pivetta (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 28.1% and put on 7.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .309 xwOBA against him.
MIL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (53 weighted pitches over the last three days). SD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (60 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Petco Park plays 8% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 82°F with 9 mph wind; Alfonso Márquez has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for MIL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-6% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is ballpark (-5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | MIL 44% · SD 56% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | MIL 3.9 – 4.2 SD |
| Projected total runs | 8.1 |
| One-run game | 32% |
| MIL starter | Dustin May (RHP): projected 21.9% strikeouts, 10.4% walks + HBP, 4.0 innings |
| SD starter | Nick Pivetta (RHP): projected 28.1% strikeouts, 7.9% walks + HBP, 4.6 innings |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.5%) |
Milwaukee Brewers · San Diego Padres · Dustin May · Nick Pivetta
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