San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers projection, 2026-10-04
The model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 58% chance of beating the San Diego Padres in the NL Division Series at American Family Field, with a projected score of SD 3.6, MIL 4.0 and about 7.7 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Michael King (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 24.5% and put on 10.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.7 innings. Last season hitters managed a .319 xwOBA against him. Logan Henderson (RHP, MIL) projects to strike out 29.4% and put on 6.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .299 xwOBA against him.
SD's bullpen has 74% of its usual relief work rested (81 weighted pitches over the last three days); Adrian Morejon is likely unavailable. MIL's bullpen has 73% of its usual relief work rested (87 weighted pitches over the last three days).
American Family Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 68°F with 11 mph wind; Lance Barrett has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for SD the biggest factor is opposing starter (-11% to their expected runs) and for MIL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | SD 42% · MIL 58% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | SD 3.6 – 4.0 MIL |
| Projected total runs | 7.7 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| SD starter | Michael King (RHP): projected 24.5% strikeouts, 10.1% walks + HBP, 5.7 innings |
| MIL starter | Logan Henderson (RHP): projected 29.4% strikeouts, 6.8% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| Ballpark | American Family Field (run factor -2.8%) |
San Diego Padres · Milwaukee Brewers · Michael King · Logan Henderson
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