San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs: NL Wild Card Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
San Diego Padres (4 seed, 91-71) vs Chicago Cubs (5 seed, 89-73), best of 3. San Diego Padres 100% to win the series; expected length 2 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | SD win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | SD | Michael King vs Shota Imanaga | 53% |
| Game 2 | SD | Nick Pivetta vs Matthew Boyd | 54% |
| Game 3 | SD | Robbie Ray vs Kevin Gausman | 49% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | SD wins | CHC wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 games | 28.4% | 21.8% | 50.2% |
| 3 games | 24.2% | 25.6% | 49.8% |
The chance this series needs all 3 games is 49.8%; a 2-0 sweep by either side is 50.2%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King (RHP) | SD | 199.0 | 174 | 21.5% | 3.12 |
| Shota Imanaga (LHP) | CHC | 174.1 | 174 | 24.6% | 3.87 |
| Nick Pivetta (RHP) | SD | 42.1 | 50 | 28.9% | 2.98 |
| Matthew Boyd (LHP) | CHC | 130.2 | 100 | 18.6% | 4.34 |
| Robbie Ray (LHP) | SD | 169.1 | 141 | 19.6% | 4.09 |
| Kevin Gausman (RHP) | CHC | 181.0 | 185 | 24.2% | 4.92 |
San Diego Padres · Chicago Cubs · Bracket
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