Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-09-29
The model gives the San Diego Padres a 52% chance of beating the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series at Petco Park, with a projected score of CHC 4.1, SD 4.0 and about 8.1 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Matthew Boyd (LHP, CHC) projects to strike out 21.1% and put on 8.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.7 innings. Last season hitters managed a .301 xwOBA against him. Michael King (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 24.4% and put on 10.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .319 xwOBA against him.
CHC's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (50 weighted pitches over the last three days). SD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (56 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Petco Park plays 7% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 74°F with 4 mph wind; Ramon De Jesus has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CHC the biggest factor is lineup quality (+8% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is ballpark (-5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CHC 48% · SD 52% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CHC 4.1 – 4.0 SD |
| Projected total runs | 8.1 |
| One-run game | 32% |
| CHC starter | Matthew Boyd (LHP): projected 21.1% strikeouts, 8.7% walks + HBP, 5.7 innings |
| SD starter | Michael King (RHP): projected 24.4% strikeouts, 10.1% walks + HBP, 5.6 innings |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.4%) |
Chicago Cubs · San Diego Padres · Matthew Boyd · Michael King
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.