Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Boston Red Sox a 51% chance of beating the Chicago Cubs at Fenway Park, with a projected score of CHC 4.5, BOS 4.3 and about 8.7 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
David Peterson (LHP, CHC) projects to strike out 20.8% and put on 10.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .331 xwOBA against him. Brayan Bello (RHP, BOS) projects to strike out 19.0% and put on 9.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .327 xwOBA against him.
CHC's bullpen has 88% of its usual relief work rested (86 weighted pitches over the last three days). BOS's bullpen has 82% of its usual relief work rested (92 weighted pitches over the last three days); Raymond Burgos is likely unavailable.
Fenway Park plays 5% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 66°F with 20 mph wind; D.J. Reyburn has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CHC the biggest factor is weather (-7% to their expected runs) and for BOS the biggest factor is weather (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CHC 49% · BOS 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CHC 4.5 – 4.3 BOS |
| Projected total runs | 8.7 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| CHC starter | David Peterson (LHP): projected 20.8% strikeouts, 10.7% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| BOS starter | Brayan Bello (RHP): projected 19.0% strikeouts, 9.7% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Fenway Park (run factor +4.8%) |
Chicago Cubs · Boston Red Sox · David Peterson · Brayan Bello
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