Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs projection, 2026-09-24

The model gives the Chicago Cubs a 66% chance of beating the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field, with a projected score of MIA 3.8, CHC 5.1 and about 8.9 total runs. There is a 29% chance the game is decided by one run.

Tyler Phillips (RHP, MIA) projects to strike out 18.3% and put on 9.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .297 xwOBA against him. Matthew Boyd (LHP, CHC) projects to strike out 21.3% and put on 8.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .301 xwOBA against him.

MIA's bullpen has 70% of its usual relief work rested (112 weighted pitches over the last three days); Michael Petersen, Calvin Faucher, Cade Gibson are likely unavailable. CHC's bullpen has 68% of its usual relief work rested (124 weighted pitches over the last three days); Jacob Webb, Ryan Rolison are likely unavailable.

Wrigley Field plays 0% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 65°F with 9 mph wind; Alex Tosi has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for MIA the biggest factor is weather (-6% to their expected runs) and for CHC the biggest factor is lineup quality (+7% to their expected runs).

Miami Marlins · Chicago Cubs · Tyler Phillips · Matthew Boyd

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