Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Chicago Cubs a 53% chance of beating the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field, with a projected score of CHC 4.7, BOS 4.1 and about 8.8 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Shota Imanaga (LHP, CHC) projects to strike out 23.3% and put on 6.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .313 xwOBA against him. Tanner Houck (RHP, BOS) projects to strike out 19.7% and put on 9.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .376 xwOBA against him.
CHC's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (58 weighted pitches over the last three days). BOS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (110 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Tropicana Field plays 5% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Emil Jimenez has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CHC the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for BOS the biggest factor is opposing starter (-6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CHC 53% · BOS 47% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CHC 4.7 – 4.1 BOS |
| Projected total runs | 8.8 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| CHC starter | Shota Imanaga (LHP): projected 23.3% strikeouts, 6.0% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| BOS starter | Tanner Houck (RHP): projected 19.7% strikeouts, 9.9% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Tropicana Field (run factor -5.2%) |
Chicago Cubs · Boston Red Sox · Shota Imanaga · Tanner Houck
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