Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox: AL Wild Card Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Houston Astros (3 seed, 81-81) vs Chicago White Sox (6 seed, 84-78), best of 3. Chicago White Sox 100% to win the series; expected length 2 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | HOU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | HOU | Hunter Brown vs Hagen Smith | 61% |
| Game 2 | HOU | Peter Lambert vs Sean Burke | 53% |
| Game 3 | HOU | Hayden Wesneski vs Davis Martin | 57% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | HOU wins | CWS wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 games | 32.1% | 18.5% | 50.6% |
| 3 games | 28.1% | 21.3% | 49.4% |
The chance this series needs all 3 games is 49.4%; a 2-0 sweep by either side is 50.6%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown (RHP) | HOU | 108.0 | 126 | 27.4% | 3.83 |
| Hagen Smith (LHP) | CWS | 35.0 | 47 | 33.1% | 1.54 |
| Peter Lambert (RHP) | HOU | 158.2 | 156 | 23.1% | 3.97 |
| Sean Burke (RHP) | CWS | 186.2 | 203 | 26.4% | 3.52 |
| Hayden Wesneski (RHP) | HOU | 61.0 | 46 | 18.7% | 3.98 |
| Davis Martin (RHP) | CWS | 147.0 | 123 | 19.7% | 4.29 |
Houston Astros · Chicago White Sox · Bracket
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.