Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros projection, 2026-09-30
The model gives the Houston Astros a 57% chance of beating the Chicago White Sox in the AL Wild Card Series at Daikin Park, with a projected score of CWS 3.8, HOU 4.2 and about 8.0 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Sean Burke (RHP, CWS) projects to strike out 24.5% and put on 10.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .341 xwOBA against him. Hunter Brown (RHP, HOU) projects to strike out 26.7% and put on 10.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .278 xwOBA against him.
CWS's bullpen has 73% of its usual relief work rested (128 weighted pitches over the last three days); Grant Taylor is likely unavailable. HOU's bullpen has 64% of its usual relief work rested (153 weighted pitches over the last three days); Miguel Ullola, Josh Hendrickson are likely unavailable.
Daikin Park plays 2% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Alex Tosi has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CWS the biggest factor is opposing starter (-9% to their expected runs) and for HOU the biggest factor is opposing starter (-2% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CWS 43% · HOU 57% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CWS 3.8 – 4.2 HOU |
| Projected total runs | 8.0 |
| One-run game | 32% |
| CWS starter | Sean Burke (RHP): projected 24.5% strikeouts, 10.6% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| HOU starter | Hunter Brown (RHP): projected 26.7% strikeouts, 10.3% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| Ballpark | Daikin Park (run factor -2.3%) |
Chicago White Sox · Houston Astros · Sean Burke · Hunter Brown
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