Houston Astros: projections & ratings
American League West · Home park: Daikin Park (run environment -2.2%)
Ratings
Houston Astros: 4.51 runs scored and 4.75 allowed per game over 164 games. Offense rating -0.06 runs per game versus league (regressed); run prevention +0.01 (negative is better).
- vs left-handed pitching: +5 pts wOBA against its own average
- vs right-handed pitching: -2 pts
- Defense (Outs Above Average, last season): +31
- Bullpen rested: 100% (0 weighted pitches over three days)
Schedule: recent results
- Wednesday, September 30, 2026: CWS @ HOU — CWS 7 – 3 HOU · Final (AL Wild Card Series, game 2). Sean Burke vs Hunter Brown; projected CWS 3.8–4.2 HOU, 8.0 runs, HOU 57% to win.
- Tuesday, September 29, 2026: CWS @ HOU — CWS 6 – 3 HOU · Final (AL Wild Card Series, game 1). Hagen Smith vs AJ Blubaugh; projected CWS 4.1–4.3 HOU, 8.4 runs, HOU 55% to win.
- Sunday, September 27, 2026: HOU @ ATH — HOU 9 – 0 ATH · Final. Peter Lambert vs Seth Johnson; projected HOU 5.4–4.7 ATH, 10.1 runs, HOU 55% to win.
- Saturday, September 26, 2026: HOU @ ATH — HOU 13 – 2 ATH · Final. Hayden Wesneski vs Jack Perkins; projected HOU 5.5–4.8 ATH, 10.3 runs, HOU 54% to win.
- Friday, September 25, 2026: HOU @ ATH — HOU 5 – 6 ATH · Final. Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez; projected HOU 5.7–4.3 ATH, 10.0 runs, HOU 60% to win.
Most recent lineup
- Jeremy Peña (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.328
- Yordan Alvarez (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.394
- Isaac Paredes (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.343
- Jose Altuve (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.33
- Yainer Diaz (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.319
- Christian Walker (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.322
- Lucas Spence (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.315
- Cam Smith (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.298
- Nick Allen (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.27
Bullpen workload
- Josh Hader: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +11.7 pts
- Bryan Abreu: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +6.7 pts
- Bennett Sousa: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +3.4 pts
- Miguel Ullola: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +3.2 pts
- Tatsuya Imai: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.0 pts
- Bryan King: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +0.9 pts
- AJ Blubaugh: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +0.8 pts
- Ronel Blanco: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -0.5 pts
- Josh Hendrickson: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -1.3 pts
- Logan VanWey: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -1.4 pts
- Peter Lambert: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -1.5 pts
- Ethan Pecko: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -4.9 pts
Rotation projections
| Pitcher | GS | Proj. K% | Proj. BB% | Exp. IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lambert | 29 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 4.6 |
| Hunter Brown | 21 | 26.7% | 10.3% | 4.7 |
| Mike Burrows | 17 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 5.2 |
| Tatsuya Imai | 15 | 27.8% | 14.4% | 4.2 |
| Cristian Javier | 12 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 4.5 |
| Hayden Wesneski | 11 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 5.4 |
| Kai-Wei Teng | 10 | 22.7% | 13.9% | 4.6 |
| Ethan Pecko | 5 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 4.4 |
2026 postseason: AL Wild Card Series preview vs Chicago White Sox.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not advice of any kind and nothing here guarantees any result. How the numbers are made: Methodology · how they have done: Track record.
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