Houston Astros at Athletics projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Houston Astros a 55% chance of beating the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, with a projected score of HOU 5.4, ATH 4.7 and about 10.1 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.
Peter Lambert (RHP, HOU) projects to strike out 21.4% and put on 10.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Seth Johnson (RHP, ATH) projects to strike out 24.5% and put on 11.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .234 xwOBA against him.
HOU's bullpen has 93% of its usual relief work rested (80 weighted pitches over the last three days); Ronel Blanco is likely unavailable. ATH's bullpen has 74% of its usual relief work rested (125 weighted pitches over the last three days); Drew Rom, Yunior Tur are likely unavailable.
Sutter Health Park plays 13% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 66°F with 6 mph wind; Ryan Additon has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for HOU the biggest factor is ballpark (+10% to their expected runs) and for ATH the biggest factor is ballpark (+10% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | HOU 55% · ATH 45% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | HOU 5.4 – 4.7 ATH |
| Projected total runs | 10.1 |
| One-run game | 27% |
| HOU starter | Peter Lambert (RHP): projected 21.4% strikeouts, 10.4% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| ATH starter | Seth Johnson (RHP): projected 24.5% strikeouts, 11.3% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Sutter Health Park (run factor +12.7%) |
Houston Astros · Athletics · Peter Lambert · Seth Johnson
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