Houston Astros at Athletics projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Houston Astros a 54% chance of beating the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, with a projected score of HOU 5.5, ATH 4.8 and about 10.3 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.
Hayden Wesneski (RHP, HOU) projects to strike out 21.2% and put on 8.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .321 xwOBA against him. Jack Perkins (RHP, ATH) projects to strike out 24.6% and put on 10.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .297 xwOBA against him.
HOU's bullpen has 68% of its usual relief work rested (131 weighted pitches over the last three days); Bennett Sousa, Logan VanWey are likely unavailable. ATH's bullpen has 65% of its usual relief work rested (106 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Sutter Health Park plays 12% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 79°F with 6 mph wind; Gabe Morales has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for HOU the biggest factor is ballpark (+9% to their expected runs) and for ATH the biggest factor is ballpark (+9% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | HOU 54% · ATH 46% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | HOU 5.5 – 4.8 ATH |
| Projected total runs | 10.3 |
| One-run game | 27% |
| HOU starter | Hayden Wesneski (RHP): projected 21.2% strikeouts, 8.9% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| ATH starter | Jack Perkins (RHP): projected 24.6% strikeouts, 10.9% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Sutter Health Park (run factor +12.5%) |
Houston Astros · Athletics · Hayden Wesneski · Jack Perkins
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