Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros projection, 2026-09-29
The model gives the Houston Astros a 55% chance of beating the Chicago White Sox in the AL Wild Card Series at Daikin Park, with a projected score of CWS 4.1, HOU 4.3 and about 8.4 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Hagen Smith (LHP, CWS) projects to strike out 32.2% and put on 11.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.3 innings. AJ Blubaugh (RHP, HOU) projects to strike out 24.2% and put on 10.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .279 xwOBA against him.
CWS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (60 weighted pitches over the last three days). HOU's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (58 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Daikin Park plays 2% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Alex MacKay has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CWS the biggest factor is opposing bullpen (-1% to their expected runs) and for HOU the biggest factor is lineup quality (+3% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CWS 45% · HOU 55% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CWS 4.1 – 4.3 HOU |
| Projected total runs | 8.4 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| CWS starter | Hagen Smith (LHP): projected 32.2% strikeouts, 11.8% walks + HBP, 4.3 innings |
| HOU starter | AJ Blubaugh (RHP): projected 24.2% strikeouts, 10.6% walks + HBP, 4.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Daikin Park (run factor -2.3%) |
Chicago White Sox · Houston Astros · Hagen Smith · AJ Blubaugh
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