Houston Astros at Athletics projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Houston Astros a 60% chance of beating the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, with a projected score of HOU 5.7, ATH 4.3 and about 10.0 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.
Hunter Brown (RHP, HOU) projects to strike out 26.8% and put on 10.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .278 xwOBA against him. Jacob Lopez (LHP, ATH) projects to strike out 22.8% and put on 11.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .297 xwOBA against him.
HOU's bullpen has 72% of its usual relief work rested (174 weighted pitches over the last three days); Bryan Abreu, Miguel Ullola are likely unavailable. ATH's bullpen has 78% of its usual relief work rested (118 weighted pitches over the last three days); Elvis Alvarado is likely unavailable.
Sutter Health Park plays 12% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 77°F with 8 mph wind; Ryan Wills has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for HOU the biggest factor is ballpark (+9% to their expected runs) and for ATH the biggest factor is ballpark (+9% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | HOU 60% · ATH 40% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | HOU 5.7 – 4.3 ATH |
| Projected total runs | 10.0 |
| One-run game | 27% |
| HOU starter | Hunter Brown (RHP): projected 26.8% strikeouts, 10.2% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| ATH starter | Jacob Lopez (LHP): projected 22.8% strikeouts, 11.4% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| Ballpark | Sutter Health Park (run factor +12.5%) |
Houston Astros · Athletics · Hunter Brown · Jacob Lopez
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