Tampa Bay Rays: projections & ratings
American League East · Home park: Tropicana Field (run environment -5.5%)
Ratings
Tampa Bay Rays: 4.52 runs scored and 3.97 allowed per game over 165 games. Offense rating +0.01 runs per game versus league (regressed); run prevention -0.34 (negative is better).
- vs left-handed pitching: -2 pts wOBA against its own average
- vs right-handed pitching: +1 pts
- Defense (Outs Above Average, last season): -30
- Bullpen rested: 100% (0 weighted pitches over three days)
Schedule: next games
- Monday, October 12, 2026: CLE @ TB — 8:00 PM ET (AL Championship Series, game 1). TBD vs TBD; projected CLE 3.4–3.7 TB, 7.2 runs, TB 56% to win.
Schedule: recent results
- Wednesday, October 7, 2026: TB @ NYY — TB 4 – 3 NYY · Final (AL Division Series, game 3). Nick Martinez vs Max Fried; projected TB 3.9–4.3 NYY, 8.1 runs, NYY 58% to win.
- Monday, October 5, 2026: NYY @ TB — NYY 2 – 5 TB · Final (AL Division Series, game 2). Cam Schlittler vs Freddy Peralta; projected NYY 4.0–3.6 TB, 7.6 runs, NYY 52% to win.
- Saturday, October 3, 2026: NYY @ TB — NYY 0 – 1 TB · Final (AL Division Series, game 1). Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen; projected NYY 4.0–3.8 TB, 7.8 runs, TB 51% to win.
- Sunday, September 27, 2026: TB @ PHI — TB 3 – 7 PHI · Final. Nick Martinez vs Zack Wheeler; projected TB 3.5–4.5 PHI, 8.0 runs, PHI 64% to win.
- Saturday, September 26, 2026: TB @ PHI — TB 12 – 1 PHI · Final. Griffin Jax vs Aaron Nola; projected TB 3.9–4.1 PHI, 8.0 runs, PHI 55% to win.
Most recent lineup
- Yandy Díaz (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.35
- Jonathan Aranda (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.345
- Junior Caminero (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.352
- Victor Mesa Jr. (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.33
- Ryan Vilade (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.311
- Liam Hicks (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.329
- Jonny DeLuca (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.304
- Richie Palacios (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.314
- Taylor Walls (bats S) — projected wOBA 0.276
Bullpen workload
- Griffin Jax: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +8.5 pts
- Ian Seymour: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +7.9 pts
- Bryan Baker: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +5.5 pts
- Cam Booser: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +3.8 pts
- Ty Johnson: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +3.4 pts
- Cole Sulser: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +3.2 pts
- Kevin Kelly: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +3.2 pts
- Brody Hopkins: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -0.2 pts
- Manuel Rodríguez: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -0.6 pts
- Steven Matz: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -0.9 pts
- Casey Legumina: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -1.7 pts
- Jesse Scholtens: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -3.1 pts
Rotation projections
| Pitcher | GS | Proj. K% | Proj. BB% | Exp. IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 33 | 25.8% | 10.2% | 5.3 |
| Nick Martinez | 32 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 5.0 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 31 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 6.0 |
| Shane McClanahan | 24 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 4.9 |
| Griffin Jax | 23 | 28.8% | 7.8% | 4.7 |
| Ian Seymour | 16 | 27.9% | 7.6% | 5.1 |
| Steven Matz | 11 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 4.1 |
| Casey Legumina | 6 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 3.1 |
2026 postseason: AL Division Series preview vs New York Yankees · AL Championship Series preview vs Cleveland Guardians · ALCS schedule, head-to-head and bullpens.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not advice of any kind and nothing here guarantees any result. How the numbers are made: Methodology · how they have done: Track record.
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