Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees projection, 2026-10-07
The model gives the New York Yankees a 58% chance of beating the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Division Series at Yankee Stadium, with a projected score of TB 3.9, NYY 4.3 and about 8.1 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Nick Martinez (RHP, TB) projects to strike out 17.5% and put on 6.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .312 xwOBA against him. Max Fried (LHP, NYY) projects to strike out 23.3% and put on 8.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .287 xwOBA against him.
TB's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (29 weighted pitches over the last three days). NYY's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (30 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Yankee Stadium plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 64°F with 9 mph wind; Dan Bellino has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (-5% to their expected runs) and for NYY the biggest factor is weather (-4% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TB 42% · NYY 58% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TB 3.9 – 4.3 NYY |
| Projected total runs | 8.1 |
| One-run game | 32% |
| TB starter | Nick Martinez (RHP): projected 17.5% strikeouts, 6.0% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| NYY starter | Max Fried (LHP): projected 23.3% strikeouts, 8.5% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| Ballpark | Yankee Stadium (run factor -1.2%) |
Tampa Bay Rays · New York Yankees · Nick Martinez · Max Fried
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