Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies projection, 2026-09-27

The model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 64% chance of beating the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park, with a projected score of TB 3.5, PHI 4.5 and about 8.0 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.

Nick Martinez (RHP, TB) projects to strike out 17.6% and put on 6.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .312 xwOBA against him. Zack Wheeler (RHP, PHI) projects to strike out 29.6% and put on 7.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .247 xwOBA against him.

TB's bullpen has 39% of its usual relief work rested (174 weighted pitches over the last three days); Cam Booser, Ty Johnson, Cole Sulser are likely unavailable. PHI's bullpen has 61% of its usual relief work rested (184 weighted pitches over the last three days); Chase Shugart, José Urquidy are likely unavailable.

Citizens Bank Park plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 65°F with 19 mph wind; Carlos Torres has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (-15% to their expected runs) and for PHI the biggest factor is weather (-6% to their expected runs).

Tampa Bay Rays · Philadelphia Phillies · Nick Martinez · Zack Wheeler

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