Philadelphia Phillies: projections & ratings
National League East · Home park: Citizens Bank Park (run environment +2.5%)
Ratings
Philadelphia Phillies: 4.38 runs scored and 4.32 allowed per game over 165 games. Offense rating +0.09 runs per game versus league (regressed); run prevention -0.26 (negative is better).
- vs left-handed pitching: -4 pts wOBA against its own average
- vs right-handed pitching: +2 pts
- Defense (Outs Above Average, last season): +10
- Bullpen rested: 100% (0 weighted pitches over three days)
Schedule: recent results
- Thursday, October 1, 2026: PHI @ ATL — PHI 2 – 6 ATL · Final (NL Wild Card Series, game 3). Aaron Nola vs Ray Kerr; projected PHI 4.8–4.4 ATL, 9.2 runs, PHI 52% to win.
- Wednesday, September 30, 2026: PHI @ ATL — PHI 4 – 3 ATL · Final (NL Wild Card Series, game 2). Cristopher Sánchez vs Tyler Mahle; projected PHI 4.5–4.2 ATL, 8.7 runs, PHI 51% to win.
- Tuesday, September 29, 2026: PHI @ ATL — PHI 3 – 5 ATL · Final (NL Wild Card Series, game 1). Jesús Luzardo vs Chris Sale; projected PHI 3.7–3.9 ATL, 7.6 runs, ATL 54% to win.
- Sunday, September 27, 2026: TB @ PHI — TB 3 – 7 PHI · Final. Nick Martinez vs Zack Wheeler; projected TB 3.5–4.5 PHI, 8.0 runs, PHI 64% to win.
- Saturday, September 26, 2026: TB @ PHI — TB 12 – 1 PHI · Final. Griffin Jax vs Aaron Nola; projected TB 3.9–4.1 PHI, 8.0 runs, PHI 55% to win.
Most recent lineup
- Trea Turner (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.324
- Kyle Schwarber (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.364
- Bryce Harper (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.366
- Alec Bohm (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.319
- Bryson Stott (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.311
- Bryan De La Cruz (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.297
- Edmundo Sosa (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.314
- J.T. Realmuto (bats R) — projected wOBA 0.304
- Justin Crawford (bats L) — projected wOBA 0.297
Bullpen workload
- Jhoan Duran: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +10.4 pts
- Zack Wheeler: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +9.1 pts
- Jesús Luzardo: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +7.0 pts
- Jonathan Bowlan: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +6.0 pts
- José Alvarado: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +2.9 pts
- Alex McFarlane: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +2.8 pts
- Tanner Banks: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +2.2 pts
- Brooks Raley: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.5 pts
- Tim Mayza: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +1.0 pts
- Chase Shugart: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league +0.3 pts
- Andrew Painter: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -0.8 pts
- José Urquidy: 0 / 0 / 0 pitches over the last three days; K−BB vs league -2.7 pts
Rotation projections
| Pitcher | GS | Proj. K% | Proj. BB% | Exp. IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 34 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 4.8 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 34 | 24.7% | 6.5% | 5.9 |
| Jesús Luzardo | 30 | 28.1% | 8.6% | 6.1 |
| Zack Wheeler | 28 | 29.4% | 7.8% | 5.5 |
| Andrew Painter | 23 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 5.4 |
| Tim Mayza | 6 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 3.0 |
| Taijuan Walker | 4 | 16.6% | 10.2% | 4.8 |
| Alan Rangel | 3 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 4.5 |
2026 postseason: NL Wild Card Series preview vs Atlanta Braves.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not advice of any kind and nothing here guarantees any result. How the numbers are made: Methodology · how they have done: Track record.
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