Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves projection, 2026-10-01
The model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 52% chance of beating the Atlanta Braves in the NL Wild Card Series at Truist Park, with a projected score of PHI 4.8, ATL 4.4 and about 9.2 total runs. There is a 29% chance the game is decided by one run.
Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) projects to strike out 24.1% and put on 7.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .315 xwOBA against him. Ray Kerr (LHP, ATL) projects to strike out 23.4% and put on 8.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings.
PHI's bullpen has 85% of its usual relief work rested (62 weighted pitches over the last three days); Alex McFarlane, Andrew Painter are likely unavailable. ATL's bullpen has 61% of its usual relief work rested (62 weighted pitches over the last three days); Dylan Lee, Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes are likely unavailable.
Truist Park plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 84°F with 5 mph wind; Mark Ripperger has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for PHI the biggest factor is lineup quality (+4% to their expected runs) and for ATL the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | PHI 52% · ATL 48% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | PHI 4.8 – 4.4 ATL |
| Projected total runs | 9.2 |
| One-run game | 29% |
| PHI starter | Aaron Nola (RHP): projected 24.1% strikeouts, 7.6% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| ATL starter | Ray Kerr (LHP): projected 23.4% strikeouts, 8.8% walks + HBP, 4.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Truist Park (run factor -0.6%) |
Philadelphia Phillies · Atlanta Braves · Aaron Nola · Ray Kerr
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