Aaron Nola projection
Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) projects to strike out 24.0% of batters, walk or hit 7.6% and allow home runs to 4.00%, working about 4.8 innings per start.
2026 season: 34 starts, 177 innings, 178 strikeouts, 61 walks + HBP, 38 home runs.
2025 Statcast: xwOBA allowed 0.315, CSW 28.444%.
Whiff rate 25.2%, barrels allowed 9.1%, hard-hit rate 43.3%. Projections are regressed toward league average by sample size (2556 batters faced in the weighted sample), so small samples move less.
Recent starts
| Date | Innings | Pitches |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 1.7 | 38 |
| 2026-09-26 | 1 | 21 |
| 2026-09-23 | 6 | 88 |
| 2026-09-17 | 7 | 81 |
| 2026-09-11 | 6.3 | 101 |
Runs allowed per nine innings this season: 4.88. How these numbers feed each game projection is explained on the methodology page, and how to read a pitcher projection explains each number above.
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