Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves projection, 2026-09-29
The model gives the Atlanta Braves a 54% chance of beating the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL Wild Card Series at Truist Park, with a projected score of PHI 3.7, ATL 3.9 and about 7.6 total runs. There is a 34% chance the game is decided by one run.
Jesús Luzardo (LHP, PHI) projects to strike out 28.0% and put on 8.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 6.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .285 xwOBA against him. Chris Sale (LHP, ATL) projects to strike out 30.9% and put on 8.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .264 xwOBA against him.
PHI's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (54 weighted pitches over the last three days). ATL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (37 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Truist Park plays 0% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 80°F with 3 mph wind; Dan Merzel has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for PHI the biggest factor is opposing starter (-16% to their expected runs) and for ATL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-14% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | PHI 46% · ATL 54% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | PHI 3.7 – 3.9 ATL |
| Projected total runs | 7.6 |
| One-run game | 34% |
| PHI starter | Jesús Luzardo (LHP): projected 28.0% strikeouts, 8.6% walks + HBP, 6.4 innings |
| ATL starter | Chris Sale (LHP): projected 30.9% strikeouts, 8.0% walks + HBP, 5.9 innings |
| Ballpark | Truist Park (run factor -0.5%) |
Philadelphia Phillies · Atlanta Braves · Jesús Luzardo · Chris Sale
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