Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves projection, 2026-09-30
The model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 51% chance of beating the Atlanta Braves in the NL Wild Card Series at Truist Park, with a projected score of PHI 4.5, ATL 4.2 and about 8.7 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Cristopher Sánchez (LHP, PHI) projects to strike out 24.8% and put on 6.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .272 xwOBA against him. Tyler Mahle (RHP, ATL) projects to strike out 21.5% and put on 8.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .319 xwOBA against him.
PHI's bullpen has 82% of its usual relief work rested (53 weighted pitches over the last three days); Jhoan Duran is likely unavailable. ATL's bullpen has 84% of its usual relief work rested (42 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Truist Park plays 0% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 83°F with 4 mph wind; Adam Beck has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for PHI the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for ATL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-10% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | PHI 51% · ATL 49% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | PHI 4.5 – 4.2 ATL |
| Projected total runs | 8.7 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| PHI starter | Cristopher Sánchez (LHP): projected 24.8% strikeouts, 6.5% walks + HBP, 5.9 innings |
| ATL starter | Tyler Mahle (RHP): projected 21.5% strikeouts, 8.3% walks + HBP, 5.6 innings |
| Ballpark | Truist Park (run factor -0.5%) |
Philadelphia Phillies · Atlanta Braves · Cristopher Sánchez · Tyler Mahle
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