Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: NL Wild Card Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Atlanta Braves (3 seed, 94-68) vs Philadelphia Phillies (6 seed, 88-74), best of 3. Atlanta Braves 100% to win the series; expected length 3 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | ATL win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | ATL | Chris Sale vs Zack Wheeler | 55% |
| Game 2 | ATL | Tyler Mahle vs Cristopher Sánchez | 49% |
| Game 3 | ATL | Grant Holmes vs Aaron Nola | 50% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | ATL wins | PHI wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 games | 26.6% | 23.3% | 49.9% |
| 3 games | 25.1% | 25.0% | 50.1% |
The chance this series needs all 3 games is 50.1%; a 2-0 sweep by either side is 49.9%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (LHP) | ATL | 175.1 | 219 | 31.2% | 2.57 |
| Zack Wheeler (RHP) | PHI | 166.0 | 196 | 29.6% | 3.09 |
| Tyler Mahle (RHP) | ATL | 162.1 | 147 | 22.1% | 3.99 |
| Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) | PHI | 213.2 | 237 | 26.7% | 3.2 |
| Grant Holmes (RHP) | ATL | 154.1 | 116 | 17.7% | 3.62 |
| Aaron Nola (RHP) | PHI | 177.0 | 178 | 23.6% | 4.88 |
Atlanta Braves · Philadelphia Phillies · Bracket
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