Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 55% chance of beating the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park, with a projected score of TB 3.9, PHI 4.1 and about 8.0 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Griffin Jax (RHP, TB) projects to strike out 28.8% and put on 7.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .282 xwOBA against him. Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) projects to strike out 24.1% and put on 7.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .315 xwOBA against him.
TB's bullpen has 79% of its usual relief work rested (98 weighted pitches over the last three days). PHI's bullpen has 89% of its usual relief work rested (84 weighted pitches over the last three days); Tim Mayza is likely unavailable.
Citizens Bank Park plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 62°F with 14 mph wind; Ramon De Jesus has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (-8% to their expected runs) and for PHI the biggest factor is opposing starter (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TB 45% · PHI 55% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TB 3.9 – 4.1 PHI |
| Projected total runs | 8.0 |
| One-run game | 32% |
| TB starter | Griffin Jax (RHP): projected 28.8% strikeouts, 7.8% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| PHI starter | Aaron Nola (RHP): projected 24.1% strikeouts, 7.6% walks + HBP, 5.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Citizens Bank Park (run factor +2.3%) |
Tampa Bay Rays · Philadelphia Phillies · Griffin Jax · Aaron Nola
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